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As anyone who is anyone knows, the fall season is when Hollywood studios wait to release their most upscale and high brow films in order to remain fresh in the minds of Academy voters who will be voting mere months away.  With that in mind, we have compiled a list of those films and tried to gauge their chances of taking home the industry's top-most prize, the Oscar award.    


DUCT TAPE
(Fox Searchlight)

Logline:  The epic true story of Saul Duct (Sean Penn) and how he invented duct tape despite being blind and African-American.

Oscar chances:  4-1

Why It Will Win:  People know what duct tape is.  This is the first "tape" movie made in 3D.

Why It Won't Win:
  Mel Gibson directed.  Also will get heavy competition from Sony's fall release STICKY, with Samuel L. Jackson playing the white Gabriel Lemonz, the inventor of masking tape.


AIDS
(Pixar)


Logline:  When a fun loving but accident prone chimp contracts AIDS from a dirty drug needle, he has to assemble a ragtag crew of zany zoo animal friends to get him out of his cage and into a real hospital so that he doesn't die.

Oscar chances:  6-1

Why It Will Win:  The chimp dies at the end.  Spoiler alert. 

Why It Won't Win:  All his friends die trying to save him.  Spoiler alert.  


THE GREAT HOLOCAUST WEDDING FUNERAL BANK HEIST
(Disney)

Logline:  Set in Holocaust times, after a very Jewish man (Javier Bardem) attends his wife's (Queen Latifah) funeral, he has 24 hours to escape from a Nazi concentration camp in order to rob the biggest bank in Germany (Washington Mutual) so that he can pay for his daughter's (Miley Cyrus) upcoming wedding to the very man who is responsible for all his problems (Hitler).   

Oscar chances:  1-1

Why It Will Win:  It has everything.

Why It Won't Win:  It will win.


TAHITI
(Universal) 

Logline:  When a bunch of bored famous actors want to collect a paycheck and hang out together in some beautiful exotic location, they agree to let someone point a camera at them and film it all.  

Oscar chances:  100-1

Why It Will Win:  People love actors.

Why It Won't Win:  It's really not a very good movie and the actors involved aren't really trying all that hard even though it does seem like they are enjoying themselves.


MEN WHO LOVE MEN WHO THINK THEY LOVE WOMEN BUT REALLY LOVE MEN
(Overture)

Logline:  A mild-mannered homosexual accountant (Leonardo Dicaprio) falls in love with a less mild-mannered homosexual accountant (Ryan Reynolds) who doesn't know he's a homosexual but is married to another accountant in the office (Whitney Houston) who is not mild-mannnered at all.

Oscar chances:  3-1

Why It Will Win:  Great performances and all the sex scenes take place in Spanish.

Why It Won't Win:  If the Academy is all, "It's too gay".


SCHREMPF
(Lionsgate)

Logline:  Two-time Academy Award-winner Hilary Swank plays former German basketball star Detlef Schrempf in this moving biopic about his journey from a young blonde boy in Leverkusem to become an above average blonde NBA basketball player.

Oscar chances:  5-1. 

Why It Will Win:  Academy loves when Swank goes man.  

Why It Won't Win:  Sandra Bullock failed to Oscar playing Dikembe Mutombo last year. Ditto for Denzel in KING FOR A DECADE: THE BILLIE JEAN KING STORY.


THE MEN'S ROOM
(Touchstone)

Logline:  Spend time with the hilarious and ultimately heartbreaking patrons of a P.F. Chang's men's rest room.

Oscar chances:  6-1

Why It Will Win:  Out of all the movies in competition this year, this one spends the most time in one bathroom.

Why It Won't Win:  The presence of Whoopi Goldberg.  Racism.  


THE SUN
(MGM)

Logline:  The movie that finally tells the true story of the sun's rise to prominence.  With Sarah Jessica Parker as the voice of the center of the solar system.

Oscar chances:  3-1

Why It Will Win:  People, not just Academy voters, are familiar with the subject matter and there is precedence for that being rewarded in the past.  Also, Sarah Jessica goes full frontal.  

Why It Won't Win:  No one could actually look directly at this film and it couldn't be seen at night.


HTTP://
 (Relativity)

Logline:  The strange but true story of how four letters, one colon and two backslashes monopolized the space before all web addresses.  

Oscar chances:  12-1

Why It Will Win:  The filmmakers behind this film were killed by a runaway bus shortly after the movie opened.  The parents of the filmmakers behind this film, who were standing behind the filmmakers at the time, were also killed shortly thereafter. 

Why It Won't Win:  Darkhorse Sundance hit ASK JEEVES, the rise and fall of the defunct search engine and all the people its holier-than-thou British manservant inventor had to straight up murder along the way, could split fickle Academy voters. 


ONE NIGHT IN PARIS
(Miramax)

Logline:  An adaptation of the infamous Paris Hilton sex tape starring Helen Mirren and comedian Louie Anderson directed by M. Night Shymalan.

Oscar chances:  28-1

Why It Will Win:  Because M. Night's SIXTH SENSE, a movie he made over ten years ago, had a pretty cool twist ending.  

Why It Won't Win:  Even though their rational minds might tell them otherwise, Academy voters may still believe they can catch a venereal disease from the film.       


THREE'S COMPANY
(Sony)

Logline:  The movie based on the book based on the mediocre thirty year old sitcom that presupposes what would happen if Janet was killed by vampires and Jack switched bodies with Chrissy and banged Missus Roper.  

Oscar chances:  43-1

Why It Will Win:  Deals with death in very realistic and elegant manner.  Computer generated John Ritter very off putting and cool.  

Why It Won't Win:  Similar plot as INCEPTION.


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